The first two rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament make up the best weekend in sports, and though my job can try to rob me of the pleasure of watching by forcing me to go on a Friday through Sunday company retreat, it cannot steal away the joy of filling out a bracket. That said, here's my analysis of some this year's teams:
Final Four:
UNC: Will win it all. They powered through the ACC, even when star guard McCants was battling illness. They have the backcourt to match up with #1 Illinois, but also have in Sean May the inside presence to send the Illini home.
Illinois: Hard to pick against them making the Final Four, as Oklahoma State is pretty much the only team in their bracket that might be good enough to do it. Loses to UNC in the title game.
Wake Forest: The Deacons are one ACC tournament game win away from being a #1 seed, and they're in the same region as this year's weakest top seed, Washington. Everyone knows that guards Chris Paul and Justin Gray are good, but teams still have to answer to Eric Williams at center, a great player who doesn't get the spotlight.
Syracuse: The Big East was the best conference in the country this season from top to bottom, and Syracuse won its tournament title, beating hot pick UConn in the semis. They'll get to the Final Four, with their biggest hurdle being Kentucky, not Duke.
Others:
Duke: They deserve a #1 seed for what they've accomplished, but Coach K will lose to Syracuse in the Sweet 16. Historically, whenever Duke has had problems with depth, they've struggled in the tournament, and this is definitely one of those years. The ACC was a lot weaker this year in the middle than people think, and Duke only went 2-2 in the regular season against the other top 3 conference teams. They had the ACC Tourney handed to them, as each team they faced was the lower seed from the previous round's game.
Louisville: What in the world is this team doing in the 4 slot? For the past two years, I've unsuccessfully tried to give Rick Patino his triumphant return to the Final Four, but this could be the year that he finally does it, using this wrongfully high seeding as motivation for his players. While the Cardinals could knock off questionable Washington, I still don't see them making it past Wake. An Elite 8 team in my book.
Kansas: Roy Williams can breath easy, because I don't think he has to worry about facing the team he betrayed by leaving for North Carolina. Kansas is hitting a slump at exactly the wrong time and has several chances to lose before making the Elite 8, which I have them doing to Wisconsin in the second round.
Florida: People criticize Billy Donovan's teams for choking in the NCAAs, but doesn't anyone remember 2000 when his Gators made a surprise run to the championship game? Florida is red hot coming off the SEC championship against Kentucky, even hotter than Villanova, their likely second round opponent. It's a shame that they'll have to go up against the Heels in the Sweet 16.
Georgia Tech: This is probably the only team in the tournament that could lose in the first round just as likely as they could win the whole thing. I have them doing the former against an underseeded George Washington team, who knocked off Michigan State and Maryland on consecutive days early in the season.
Iowa State: They use their speed to run right past Minnesota to the second round. After a great start which included beating UVA (back when we were good), Iowa State hit a road block midseason. They came out of that slump to earn a Big Dance bid and are quite deserving of one.
Pacific: There's a ton of hype around this team, but I don't think their record puts them that far above any other mid major who's had a successful season. I don't like their chances against Pittsburgh, who fought alongside the toughest the Big East had to offer, which, this year, was pretty darn tough.
Charlotte: If the season had ended two weeks earlier, I'd have had Charlotte making the Sweet 16 as a no-brainer. However, this team's stock is falling fast, having lost 3 straight games by double digits. This doesn't bode well for their first round matchup against NC State, whose improved play in the final weeks of the season culminated in an ACC tournament blowout of Wake Forest.
Old Dominion: There's always a temptation to pick a CAA team to win its first round game, as the league almost always puts up a surprising fight. That pick looks especially alluring when you take into account ODU's 28-5 record. Sure, the Monarchs might be good, but their Strength of Schedule outside of the conference is one of the weakest in the nation. They won't see a second game, losing to a solid Michigan State.
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